基于特征地震模型含时间的概率地震危险性分析方法及其应用研究  

Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods and its applications based on characteristic earthquake models

作　　者：李昌珑[1] 徐伟进[1] 吴健[1] 高孟潭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国北京100081

出　　处：《地震学报》2015年第6期1024-1036,2,共13页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：地震行业科研专项(201408014)资助

摘　　要：本文介绍了特征地震的对数正态分布模型、正态分布模型和布朗过程时间模型,提出了使用地震破裂面源模型的特征地震含时间的概率地震危险性分析理论和方法.通过具体算例对不同的特征地震模型进行了比较,并对特征地震危险性分析方法进行了系统探索.研究结果表明,特征地震含时间模型在复发周期早期的地震危险性低于不含时间模型,而在后期其地震危险性则高于不含时间模型.特征地震复发周期的对数正态分布模型与布朗过程时间模型计算得出的地震危险性差别不大.在未到期望复发时间时,正态分布模型与前两种模型计算的地震危险性差别不大;而接近期望复发时间及之后时段,正态分布模型计算的地震危险性则迅速增大.This paper introduces several kinds of characteristic earthquake models,which obey lognormal distribution,normal distribution and Brownian passage-time（BPT）,and then proposes the theory and method of timedependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis（PSHA）of characteristic earthquake based on seismic rupture surface model.Finally different characteristic earthquake models are compared through several examples,and the PSHA method of characteristic earthquake are systematically explored.The results indicate that the seismic hazard of time-dependent models of characteristic earthquake in early periods of recurrence cycle is lower than that of time-independent model,and higher than that of time-independent model in later periods.The seismic hazard by using lognormal distribution model is similar to that by BPT model.Before expected recurrence time,the seismic hazard calculated by normal distribution model is similar to the two models mentioned above,but increases quickly near and beyond expected recurrence time.

关 键 词：含时间的概率地震危险性 特征地震 对数正态分布 布朗过程时间模型 地震破裂面源模型 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]