基于IOSLAB的可再生能源发电投资个人支付意愿选择实验研究  

Choice Experiment Study on Personal Willingness to Pay for Renewable Energy Generation Investment Based on IOSLAB System

作　　者：刘贞[1,2] 朱开伟[1] 贲可蒙[1] 吕指臣 蒲刚清[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学低碳能源研究中心,重庆市400054 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力建设》2015年第12期131-136,共6页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71573026;71073095)~~

摘　　要：根据中国能源中长期发展规划,2020年非化石能源比例将达到15%。为了制定有效的可再生能源投资激励政策,运用个人-组织-社会实验平台(individual,organization and society laboratory,IOSLAB)进行选择实验研究,分析个人对可再生能源投资的支付意愿,从经济、环境和社会的角度综合评价可再生能源投资。研究通过现场实验的方式,采用IOSLAB系统对当地居民进行现场调查。并采用多项式Probity模型求解支付意愿,模型假设所有的实验参与者对每个属性的价值具有相同偏好。通过对研究结果的分析,发现社会认可发展可再生能源会减少空气污染,增加社会就业,并愿意支付相关费用以弥补发展可再生能源所带来的部分额外成本。研究结果有助于决策者制定可再生能源投资政策。According to the long-term development planning of China＇s energy,the proportion of non-fossil energy w ill reach to 15%. In order to develop effective investment incentive policies for renew able energy,this paper applied IOSLAB（ Individual,Organization and Society Laboratory） platform to carry out choice experiment（ CE） study,analyzed personal w illingness to pay for renew able energy investment,and comprehensively evaluated the renew able energy investment from aspects of economy,environment and society. IOSLAB system w as used to survey the local residents through field experiments. M oreover,a multinomial Probity model（ M NP） w as applied to solve the w illingness to pay for renew able energy investment. M NP assumed that all respondents had the same preferences for the attributes being valued. Through the analysis on the research results,it is found that the public pay related fees to cover part of the extra cost brought by the development of renew able energy,because renew able energy can reduce the air pollution and increase social employment.The research results can help decision makers to develop the investment policies of renew able energy.

关 键 词：可再生能源 选择实验 支付意愿 多项式Probity模型 个人-组织-社会实验平台(IOSLAB)系统 

分 类 号：TM619[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]