基于证据推理的城市公交服务能力评价研究  

Research of Urban Public Transport Service Capability Evaluation Based on Evidence Reasoning

作　　者：周万枝[1] 谢新连[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2015年第12期139-143,150,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

摘　　要：为了构建合理的评价体系,开展城市公交服务能力评价,促进城市公交的服务能力和水平的提升,对城市公交服务能力要素进行了分析,提出了城市公交服务的目标及条件服务能力、过程服务能力和政策服务能力3个要素,分析了要素中的评价指标,构建了城市公交服务能力评价模型。通过调查乘客对各个城市公交服务能力指标的评判,统计了各指标的评价信度,用层次分析法和直接赋值法确定了各指标的权重,运用证据推理方法和智能决策系统软件对某城市的城市公交服务能力了进行评价。实证评价表明:评价指标的选取、评价模型的构建和评价方法的运用都科学合理。In order to build a reasonable evaluation system,to carry out urban public transport service capability evaluation,and to promote ascension of urban public transport service capability and level,the elements of urban public transport service capability are analyzed,the urban public transport service goals,and the 3 key elements including conditional service capability,process service capability and policy service capability are proposed,the evaluation indicators of the elements are analyzed,and the urban public transport service capability evaluation model is constructed. By investigating the passenger judgment to the urban public transport service capability evaluation indicators,the statistics of evaluation reliability of each indicator is conducted,the weight of each indicator is determined with AHP and direct assignment method,and the urban public transport service capability of a city is evaluated by using ER method and IDS software. The empirical evaluation shows that the selection of evaluation indicators,the construction of evaluation model and the use of the evaluation method is scientific and reasonable.

关 键 词：交通工程 评价体系 证据推理 层次分析法 服务能力 乘客认可度 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]