非正规金融机构向正规金融机构流动性危机传染机制研究--基于存款者全局博弈视角  

Study on the Contagion Mechanism of Liquidity Crisis from Non-formal to Formal Financial Institutions:Based on the Depositor's Global Game

作　　者：任芃兴 陈东平[2,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]南京农业大学金融学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年第12期40-47,共8页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“农民资金互助组织演化过程中风险累积的识别与抑制研究”(项目编号:71273138);教育部博士学科点专项科研基金(博导类)“农民资金互助组织发育机理与响应条件研究”(项目编号:20110097110008)

摘　　要：长久以来,非正规金融机构和正规金融机构是两种并存的金融组织形式。近年来,大量非正规金融组织在农村涌现,其流动性风险逐渐累积,一个值得思考的问题是:非正规金融机构的流动性危机是否会传染到正规金融机构,传染的可能机制是什么?笔者基于存款者视角,构建了全局博弈模型,分析非正规金融机构流动性危机向正规金融机构传染的机理,即非正规金融机构流动性危机的发生使得"悲观"的存款者变得更为悲观,但危机发生有助于"乐观"的存款者识别对方的悲观程度,这种态度改变及其学习效应影响了存款者在面对正规金融机构时的博弈策略,最终导致危机的传染。笔者进一步用案例证明了这一结论。基于此,无论政府还是正规金融机构均有必要防范非正规金融机构的金融风险,研究结论对于如何改善既有的农村金融监管质量具有参考意义。Non-formal financial institutions and formal financial institutions are two forms of coexisting financial organizations. With the scale of non-formal financial institutions increase, the liquidity risk of these institutions is accumulating. A question worth thinking about is whether the liquidity crisis of rural non-formal financial institutions contagious to formal financial institutions. What is the possible mechanism of contagion？ Based on the perspective of depositors, a global game model is built in this paper. This paper analyzes the mechanism of liquidity crisis from non-formal financial institutions contagious to formal financial institutions. The liquidity crisis of non-formal financial institutions makes the ＂pessimism＂ depositors become more pessimistic, but the crisis helps ＂optimistic＂ depositors identify the pessimistic degree of the others. This changed attitude and the learning effect of depositors affect their game strategy in the face of formal financial institutions, eventually leading to contagion of the crisis. This paper is provides case to demonstrate this conclusion. Based on the conclusion, both the Government and the formal financial institutions are necessary to prevent financial risks of non-formal financial institutions to safeguard financial stability in rural areas.

关 键 词：非正规金融机构 正规金融机构 流动性危机传染 存款者全局博弈 

分 类 号：F832.35[经济管理—金融学]