广西南宁1999—2014年艾滋病感染者/患者生存状况分析  

Survival of HIV/AIDS patients in Nanning city of Guangxi,1999-2014

作　　者：李斯斯[1] 农全兴[1] 徐永芳[1] 陈世艺[1] 姚敏[1] 徐红[1] 农丽萍[1] 覃威翱 

机构地区：[1]南宁市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科,广西530023

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2015年第12期1569-1573,共5页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：广西卫生与计划生育委员会科研课题(Z2015652);南宁市科技局科技攻关课题(201109048C)

摘　　要：目的了解广西南宁市艾滋病患者的生存状况。方法采用回顾性队列研究方法，收集1999--2014年南宁市发现并确诊的5155例病例，采用乘积极限法描述其生存时间，寿命表法分析其生存率，Cox比例风险模型分析其影响因素。结果5155例患者总病死率为11．58／1000人月，截止观察终点15年生存率为55．01％，平均生存时间为114．42个月（95％C／=106．75～122．09）；确诊时年龄≥60岁病例1533例（占总病例数29．74％）；确认后半年内死亡806例（死亡病例53．66％）；Cox多因素分析结果显示，性别（P〈0．001，HR=0．741）、确诊时年龄（P〈0．001，HR=1．111）、感染途径（P=0．037，HR=0．692）、治疗情况（P〈0．001，HR=0．062）是生存时间的影响因素。结论南宁市老年病例及晚发现病例较多，及时抗病毒治疗是延长艾滋病患者生存时间的有效手段。Objective To analyze survival rate of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome （HIV/AIDS） patients in Nanning city of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region （Guangxi）. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the survival time and its related factors among 5 155 HIV/AIDS cases after diagnosis during 1999 -2004 in Nanning city. Kaplan-Meier method was applied to describe the survival distribution and life table was performed to calculate the survival proportion. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the factors associated with the survival. Results The overall mortality was 11.58/1 000 person-months. The average survival time was 114. 42 months （95 % confidence interval [ 95% CI] = 106. 75 - 122. 09）with a 15-year survival rate of 55.01% by the end of the ob- servation. Among the 5 155 AIDS cases,1 533（29. 74% ） were diagnosed as HIV-positive at the ages of 60 years or above and 1 502 died during the observation period, of which 806 （ 53.66% ） died within 6 months after the diagnosis of HIV/ AIDS. The results of multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that gender （ hazard risk （HR） = 0. 741 ,P 〈 0. 001 ）, age at HIV infection （ HR = 1.111, P 〈 0. 001 ）, transmission route （ HR = 0. 692, P = 0. 037 ）, and anti-retroviral therapy （ ART ） （HR = 0. 062, P 〈 0. 001 ） were influential factors of the survival rate. Conclusion There were many aged and delayed-diagnosed HIV/AIDS patients Nanning city. Timely ART was an effective approach to prolong the survival of AIDS patients.

关 键 词：艾滋病 生存分析 影响因素 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]