中国近60年干旱演变特征分析  

Investigation into drought evolution characteristics of China in 60 years

作　　者：刘小龙[1,2] 虞美秀[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第12期177-183,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171220);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAB03B03)资助

摘　　要：基于全国609个气象站降水、气温数据,计算了不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散发干旱指数(SPEI),研究了近60年来整个中国及不同地区的干旱面积、干旱历时、干旱频率的变化特征。研究结果表明:中国北部地区、东北部的西南地区、西北东部地区、西北部的西南和东北地区干旱呈显著上升趋势,而青藏高原东部地区正在显著变湿;1990年代末以来重旱和特旱干旱面积以每10年约3.72%的速率增长;近30年以来西北部地区、北部地区、东北部地区干旱发生频率显著提高。研究成果可为中国干旱防灾减灾以及建立全国旱情监测和预警系统提供重要参考。Droughts are the world ＇s most damaging and pressing natural disasters,causing tens of billions of dollars losses in all over the world,and collectively affecting more people than any other form of devastating climate- related hazards. Located in East Asia,China has also suffered long- lasting and severe droughts during the second half of twentieth century,which caused large economic and societal losses. Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index（ SPEI） calculated by monthly precipitation and temperature from over 600 meteorological stations,the drought percentage area,drought duration and drought frequency of the whole China were investigated. The results revealed： severe and extreme droughts have become more serious since late 1990 s for the whole China; significant drying trends occurred over north part of China mainly due to a decrease in precipitation coupled with a general increase in temperature. The results could provide valuable references and triggers for establishing a drought early warning system in China.

关 键 词：SPEI指数 干旱 中国 监测预警 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]