冲突条件下最优行动策略选择分析——基于序贯决策博弈方法  

Analysis on the Optimal Action Strategy Choice on the Condition of Conflict-based on sequential decision game method

作　　者：杨钧[1] 苑小丰 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学财政税务学院,辽宁大连116001 [2]大连市统计局国民经济核算处,辽宁大连116011

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第22期35-45,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"转变经济增长方式的重点和难点:风险分析;控制系统和激励机制研究"(12&ZD067);全国统计科学研究计划项目"大连经济发展方式转变过程中的宏观经济风险研究"(LY036)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于国家战略选择高度,构建了一个处于冲突条件下的国与国之间资源分配模型,从动态均衡角度出发,分析一国最优的行动策略选择问题.通过比较先后行动与同时行动博弈之间的收益,验证行动策略对冲突均衡的影响.从结论上看:无论是对于防卫国,还是对于掠夺国来说,选择先行动策略,将使本国与同时行动博弈相比获得更大收益,总是一国最优的博弈策略.It constructs a resource allocation model among countries on the condition of conflict from the position of national strategy choice and analyzes the problem of a national＇s optimal action strategy choice from dynamic equilibrium angle in this paper.It tests the influence of action strategy upon conflict equilibrium through the comparison on outcomes of precedence action game and simultaneous action game.In conclusion,choosing prior action strategy as their optimal game tactics could acquire more outcomes for both defending state and ravening state compared with Simultaneous-Move Games.

关 键 词：冲突 最优 行动策略 序贯博弈 

分 类 号：E0-054[军事—军事理论] F224[经济管理—国民经济]