统计降尺度方法对青海湖地区气温变化的适用性分析及未来情景预估  

Scenarios Projection and Suitability Analysis of the Temperature Change Over Qinghai Lake Area Based on Statistical Downscaling Method

作　　者：郝美玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院计算机网络信息中心,北京100190

出　　处：《科研信息化技术与应用》2015年第4期86-92,共7页E-science Technology & Application

基　　金：中国科学院计算机网络信息中心青年基金"青海湖和三江源地区关键气象要素时空分析与GIS展示"(CNIC_QN_1401);中国科学院计算机网络信息中心一三五规划重点培育方向专项(CNIC_PY_1408);中国科学院计算机网络信息中心一三五规划重点培育方向专项(CNIC_PY_1409)

摘　　要：运用SDSM统计降尺度方法对青海湖地区气象观测站实测日数据(1961—1990年)进行统计降尺度研究,应用独立的观测资料(1991—2000年)验证发现该方法在高海拔地区气温变化研究方面具有一定的适用性,所有观测站的日均误差均在1℃左右。对未来两种排放情景预估发现,未来气温变化表现出一致的升温趋势,且随着时间的推移升温趋势逐渐增加。从A、B两种气候情景的预估结果来看,21世纪中叶B情景下的增幅略大于A情景,不同月和季表现不同;到21世纪末A情景的下的月、季增幅均大于B情景。夏季增温最明显,秋季或冬季的增幅最小。21世纪中叶,平均增幅为1.87℃左右,到本世纪末,平均增幅达到3.69℃左右。这个结果与前人的研究预测基本一致。SDSM statistical downscaling method is used to project and to evaluate the temperature change over Qinghai Lake area with five representative stations. The simulation results indicate that the SDSM method is suitable in high altitude area and the temperature would be gradually increased. Comparison of the results under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 shows that the range of temperature increases under IPCC SRES B2 is slightly greater than that under A2 in 2050 s, every month and season may differ in the ranges, the result is just the opposite by the end of the 21 century, the range of temperature under A2 is greater. Warming is more obvious in summer and the increased ranges are the smaller in autumn and winter. The average of temperature increases would be around 1.87℃ in 2050 s, and it would be reach to 3.69℃ by the end the 21 century. This result is consistent well with the predictions by former researches.

关 键 词：气温变化 SDSM 降尺度方法 情景预估 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]