基于统计和过程模型的河南省夏玉米最适播种期时空分布特征  

Temporal and spatial variation of the optimal sowing dates of summer maize based on both statistical and processes models in Henan Province,China

作　　者：谈美秀 王靖[1] 余卫东[2] 赫迪[1] 王娜[1] 戴彤[1] 孙岩[3] 唐建昭 常清[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]河南省气象科学研究所中国气象局-河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2015年第12期3670-3678,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101046);中国气象局-河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放研究基金项目(AMF201203);全国涉农引智平台项目(2015z007)资助

摘　　要：播种期是影响夏玉米产量的重要因素,石开究夏玉米最适播种期的时空分布特征对指导夏玉米生产有重要意义.本文应用统计模型和APSIM-Maize过程模型分析了河南省夏玉米最适播种期的时空分布特征.结果表明:河南省夏玉米的最适播种期为5月30日至6月13日,南早北晚,北部地区以6月4日至13日播种为宜,西部山区应在5月30日左右播种,南部地区应尽量保证在6月8日前播种.晚熟品种‘农大108'应比中熟品种‘丹玉13'至少提前播种2 d气候变暖背景下若收获期可推迟1周,则最适播种期将至少推迟3 d.在生长季降水偏少年型下,夏玉米应较正常年型晚播7 d左右;而在生长季降水偏多年型下,夏玉米应早播7 d左右.1971-2010年,;可南省夏玉米最适播种期变化趋势不显著,但是由于温度变化和品种改良对冬小麦成熟期的影响导致河南省驻马店以南地区、中部的伊川、内乡、南阳,以及北部的林州和西部的三门峡地区夏玉米可播种期提前,可播种范围扩大.统计方法和APSIM模型计算的夏玉米最适播种期在76.7%的研究站点无显著差异.结合两种方法,北部地区应保证需水关键期降水充足和灌浆期温度适宜,做到"见雨即播".南部地区在满足上述两个指标的条件下应在播种期降水达到一定有效值时进行播种,对于南部和偏南部地区,该有效值分别为3.9和8.3 mm.Sowing date is one of the vital factors for determining crop yield.In this study,temporal and spatial variation of optimal sowing date of summer maize was analyzed by statistical model and the APSIM-Maize model in Henan Province,China.The results showed that average summer maize optimal sowing dates ranged from May 30 to June 13 across Henan Province with earlier sowing before June 8 in the southern part and later sowing from June 4 to June 13 in the northern part.The optimal sowing date in mountain area of western Henan Province should be around May 30.Latematuring variety Nongda 108 should be planted at least two days earlier than middle-maturing variety Danyu 13.Under climate warming background,maize sowing should be postponed for at least 3days if maize harvesting date could be delayed for a week.It was proposed that sowing should be delayed for about a week for a yearly less precipitation pattern while advanced for about a week for a yearly more precipitation pattern compared to the normal one.Across Henan Province,the optimal sowing dates of summer maize showed no significant change trend in 1971-2010,while the potential sowing period had been extended for some regions,such as south from Zhumadian,Yichuan,Nei-xiang and Nanyang in the middle part of Henan,Linzhou in the northern Henan and Sanmenxia in the western Henan,as a result from advanced maturity of winter wheat due to increasing temperature and winter wheat cultivar change.Optimal sowing dates at 76.7%of the study stations showed no significant difference between the two methods.It was recommended that the northern Henan should sow maize immediately after any rainfall and replant afterward,while the southern Henan should not sow maize until that there were valid precipitation（3.9 mm and 8.3 mm for upper south and south parts,respectively） during sowing period,both required enough precipitation during key water requirement period and optimal temperature during grain-filling period.

关 键 词：夏玉米 需水关键期 降水年型 统计模型 APSIM 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]