京津冀地区资源环境承载力动态变化及其驱动因子  

Change of resource environmental bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its driving factors

作　　者：郭轲[1] 王立群[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2015年第12期3818-3826,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：北京社会科学基金项目(15JGB044);林业公益性行业科研专项和教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJA630127)(201304308)资助

摘　　要：在构建京津冀地区资源环境承载力评价指标体系的基础上,运用状态空间模型科学测量京津冀地区资源环境承载力,并结合时间序列Tobit模型分析京津冀地区资源环境承载力的驱动因素.结果表明:2000-2012年,京津冀地区资源环境承载力都处于可载状态且在上升阶段.社会经济增长对资源环境带来的压力较大.京津冀三省(市)的承载度都呈现"U"型曲线形式,资源环境承载度都较低,资源环境承载潜力较大.常住人口数量、城镇居民恩格尔系数是京津冀地区资源环境承载力的共同影响因素,人口问题很可能成为限制区域社会经济发展的瓶颈对资源环境造成威胁.三地应该在资源环境、社会发展、经济结构方面互为补充,把资源环境承载力作为参考等政策启示.Based on the evaluation index system established for measuring the resource environmental bearing capacity（REBC）,this paper measured the REBC of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by applying the state space model and analyzed their driving factors by using the Tobit model.The results showed that the REBC of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was in the available state and at the rising stage as well during 2000-2012.The social economic growth had great pressure on the resources and environment.The bearing ratios of the REBCs of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei all presented a U curve and located at low levels,which meant that there was high REBC potential in these regions.Both of the permanent population and the urban residents ＇Engel＇ s coefficient were the influence factors of the REBC of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The population problem was likely to become the bottleneck to restrict the regional social and economic development,and also threaten the resources and environment.The specific driving factors of the REBC were different in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.For example,energy consumption per unit of GDP only had significant impact on Tianjin.At last,the paper proposed that the three regions should complement each other in resources and environment,social development,and economic structure,also the REBC should be taken a reference in decision and policy making.

关 键 词：京津冀地区 资源环境承载力 驱动因子 状态空间模型 TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]