安倍经济学政策无效性的人口根源  

The population reason of Abenomics Policy ineffectiveness

作　　者：马学礼[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2016年第1期27-32,共6页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

摘　　要：安倍经济学以超常规的财政货币政策刺激经济,但从通胀率、就业工资和经济增长等主要经济指标来看,这种刺激政策基本无效,其根源在于日本人口因素的制约,并具体体现在供给环路与需求环路中。通过历史增长核算模型对日本1992—2009年经济增长进行的分析可以证明:日本实际经济增长率长期受制于人口因素的变动,并抵消掉了其他因素的贡献;人口因素,包括劳动力数量的绝对减少和深度人口老龄化已经并将继续从根本上削弱日本经济的长期增长潜力,这是历史矛盾积累导致的必然趋势。安倍经济学的结构性改革内容旨在缓解或解决这一矛盾,但由于人口变动的历史惯性,安倍经济学结构性改革的前景极有可能也是无效的。Abenomics stimulate the economy with extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy, but the stimulus policies are invalid according to the main economic indicators such as the inflation rate, employment wage and economic growth. Its root lies in the restriction of Japan＇s population factors, which is concretely reflected in the supply loop and demand loop. ＇Ilarough the analysis of Japan＇s economic growth in 1992~2009 using the historical growth accounting model, we can prove that： Japan＇s real economic growth rate is subject to long-term changes in demographic factors, which offsets the contribution of other factors; demographic factors including the absolute decrease of the amount of labor and the deepness of aging have been and will continue to weaken Japan＇s long-term potential economic growth fundamentally. This is an inevitable trend of the historical contradiction caused by accumulation. The content of structural reform of Abenomics aims to relieve or solve the contradiction, but due to the historical inertia of demographic changes, its prospect is likely to be invalid.

关 键 词：人口因素 安倍经济学 日本经济 政策无效性 人口惯性 历史增长核算模型 人口老龄化 

分 类 号：F112.2[经济管理—国际贸易]