环境规制与化石能源消耗——技术进步和结构变迁视角  

Environmental Regulation and Fossil Energy Consumption:Based on the Perspective of Technological Progress and Economic Structure Transformation

作　　者：周肖肖[1] 丰超[2,3] 胡莹[1] 魏晓平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中南大学金属资源战略研究院,湖南长沙410083 [3]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第12期35-44,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"我国矿产资源跨期优化配置机制研究"(编号:11&ZD163);江苏省2014年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"环境约束与经济增长对能源消费总量与结构的影响"(编号:KYZZ_0378)

摘　　要：为从根本上缓解经济发展的环境和能源压力,反思中国现行具有明显偏向性的环境政策能否在促进减排的基础上实现节能。在经济增长理论体系框架下,梳理环境规制与化石能源消耗的关系,从直接和间接两方面分析其非线性关系,指出环境规制节能的直接效应是绿色悖论和成本效应博弈的结果,间接效应则主要来自技术溢出和结构效应两个方面。在此基础上,引入生产技术进步、治污技术进步、产业结构、要素投入结构和能源消费结构作为中介变量,构建环境规制的节能路径模型,并基于2003-2012年中国省级面板数据,采用系统-GMM和门槛回归方法进行实证检验。结果表明:环境规制与人均能源消费呈现倒"U"型关系,即只有超越一定门槛,环境规制的节能效用才能凸显。然而,由于环保投资增速低于工业化速度,中国大部分省份都未能跨过这一道"门槛",仍处在环境规制的节能悖论时期,一定程度上反映出中国环境规制政策存在水平较低、执行力不足等问题。环境规制的间接节能路径中技术溢出效应不显著,因技术进步的遵循成本效应与波特假说效应的不确定性,导致中国环境规制的节能作用中未能享受技术溢出的福利;而结构效应中仅能源消费结构交叉项显著为负,表明当前中国环境规制不仅未能倒逼产业结构升级实现节能,反而因产业转移、产业逆淘汰现象加速了化石能源耗竭;高耗能产业的资本密集型特征导致要素投入结构对环境规制节能效果的强化作用不明显;中国特殊的资源禀赋现状决定了以煤为主的能源消费结构,环境规制通过调整能源消费结构实现能源节约效果显著,未来持续发展的潜力巨大。同时证实存在中介变量的门槛效应,反映了不同技术水平和结构条件下,环境规制对化石能源消耗的影响不同。为此,建议未来环境政策因地制宜,充分利用对技In order to deal with the restriction of energy and environment on economic growth, it is necessary for China to assess the energy-saving performance of current environmental regulation, which aims at carbon emission reduction primarily, and makes some adjustment. Under the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper analyzes the non-liner relationship between environmental regulation and fossil energy consumption both directly and indirectly. We believe that the direct effects of environmental regulation is the aggregate result of ＇ green paradox＇ and ＇ cost effect＇ , and the indirect effect is the aggregate result of technical and structural effect. Then the models are given including the higher order term of environmental regulation and the cross terms with energy efficiency, environmental efficiency, industrial structure, inputs structure and energy consumption structure. On this basis, we empirically analyze the non-finer effects of environmental regulation and fossil energy consumption through China＇ s provincial panel data during 2003-2012, with sys-GMM and threshold regression methods. The results indicate that there is an inverted ＇ U＇ shaped relationship between Environmental Regulation and per capita fossil energy consumption, which means only when the environmental regulation is over a certain threshold, the positive energy-conserving performance would emerge. But the phenomenon that there are a few of provinces with higher environmental regulation, due to much lower growth of environmental protection investment than the speed of industrialization in China, reflect some problems about environmental regulation and its implementation. With the dynamic model for indirect impaction, we find the technical effect of environmental regulation is of a non-distinctive character and only the cross term with energy consumption structure is significantly negative in the structural effect. It means that environmental regulation could not cut down fossil energy consumption by technical change o

关 键 词：环境规制 化石能源消耗 技术效应 结构效应 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]