基于面板数据模型的社会保障与经济发展关系分析  

Analysis on Social Security and Economic Development Based on Panel Data Model

作　　者：朱孔来[1] 张晓[2] 李励[1] 姜文华[1] 

机构地区：[1]济南大学软实力研究中心,山东济南250002 [2]中国联合网络通信集团有限公司济南分公司,山东济南250001

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2015年第12期62-67,共6页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：山东省软科学计划项目<山东省社会保障水平;保障能力监测评价体系研究>(2012RKB40002)

摘　　要：定量分析社会保障与经济发展之间的关系对服务领导决策、促进二者协调发展具有重要意义。以中国31个省区市2001-2011年的人均GDP和人均社会保障支出的面板数据作为样本数据,从横截面、时间以及指标三个维度对二者之间的关系进行了实证分析;通过单位根检验、面板数据的协整检验,得出中国社会保障水平与经济发展水平之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;在此基础上构建固定效应变系数模型,从弹性角度分析,得出中国社会保障水平每提高1个百分点就会促进经济发展水平提高0.87个百分点的结果。Quantitative analysis of the relationship between social security and economic development plays important role in leadership decision-making and promoting the coordinated development between social security and economic development.Taking the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities from2001 to 2011- per capita GDP years and per capita social security expenditure as sample,the authors analyze the relationship between them from three dimensions：cross-sectional,time,and indicators.The authors conduct panel data unit root test and cointegration test panel data using the panel data,which verifies a long-term stable equilibrium relationship existed between the level of social security and the level of economic development of China and builds fixed effects model with variable coefficients on the basis of data.The level of social security of each increase one percentage point would promote the level of economic development improves 0.87 percentage points from the elastic perspective.

关 键 词：社会保障水平 经济发展水平 面板数据 长期均衡 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]