山区公路交通危险性预测模型研究  

Study of traffic risk prediction model of highway in moutainous area

作　　者：胡燕红 黄细和 谢春玲 康虔 

机构地区：[1]湖南中大设计院有限公司,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《湖南城市学院学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期1-4,共4页Journal of Hunan City University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"线路-结构物-环境耦合约束下的铁路点线协同优化理论与方法"(51378512)

摘　　要：基于山区公路事故危险性预测的需要,参考高等级公路事故危险性预测方法,提出一种基于未确知测度法的山区公路危险性预测模型。选取对山区公路事故危险性影响最大的十一个指标建立了预测模型及各项指标的未确知测度函数,利用层次分析法计算各判别指标权重,最后依照置信度识别准则进行事故危险性等级判定,预测出山区公路事故危险性风险等级。通过石门县山区干线公路实例验证,预测结果与事实基本相符,该方法较为理想和实用,为道路安全性评价提供了一种新的方法。Based on the demand of risk prediction of highway accident in mountainous area, a model that based on uncertainty measurement theory was proposed through referenced risk prediction method of high-grade highway. The eleven indices that effected the risk of highway accident in mountainous area most were selected to build the uncertainty measurement function and prediction model. The weight of indices were calculated by AHP method. At last, the predictive rank of slope risk was finally achieved by using the rules of credible recognition criteria. By the example verification of highway in Shimen moutainous area, the prediction results were basically the same as facts. It was a ideal and applied method, which provided a new method to evaluate the safety of mountain highway.

关 键 词：山区公路 事故 未确知测度 预测模型 

分 类 号：U489[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]