财政支农支出、经济增长、收入差距与区域农村居民消费——基于非参数可加模型的实证研究  

Empirical Study on Governments' Fiscal Expenditure Supporting Agriculture,Economic Growth,Income Gap and Regional Rural Residents' Consumption:Based on Nonparametric Additive Model

作　　者：徐斌[1] 陈建宝[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院,江西南昌330013 [2]厦门大学经济学院统计系,福建厦门361000

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2015年第5期769-783,共15页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学项目(13YJA9100002);江西省博士后科研择优资助项目(2013KY26);江西省科学技术研究项目(GJJ14324);江西省自然基金项目(20142BAB201014)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于杜生贝利的相对收入假说理论,建立了农村居民消费影响因素的非参数可加模型,利用我国1984-2011年30个省区市的面板数据,对财政支农支出、经济增长和居民收入差距对不同区域农村居民消费支出的线性和非线性影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国经济的持续快速增长、居民收入差距和财政支农支出均是影响区域农村居民消费的重要因素,但三者对不同区域农村居民消费的影响方向和影响强度存在显著差异。线性部分回归结果表明经济增长的影响强度远高于收入差距和财政支农支出,而且收入差距对东部和中西部地区产生完全相反的影响。非线性分析结果显示财政支农支出对东、西部地区农村居民消费产生一个显著的"正U"形非线性影响,而对中部地区则产生一个显著的"倒U"形非线性影响。Based on Duesenberry＇s relative income hypothesis,this paper examines the linear and nonlinear effects of governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture,economic growth,income gap on regional rural residents＇ consumption in China using nonparametric additive regression model and provincial panel data from 1984 to 2011.The empirical results show that the three variables are all important factors of impacting regional rural residents＇ consumption,but their impact direction and impact strength are remarkably different.The linear part of the estimation results shows that the influence intensity of economic growth is much higher than that of income gap and governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture,and income gap has an almost completely opposite effects between the Eastern region and the Midwest.The results of the non-linear analysis indicate that governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture follows a positive U-shape pattern with rural residents＇ consumption in the eastern and western regions,but a remarkable inverted U-shape pattern in the central region.

关 键 词：财政支农支出 经济增长 收入差距 农村居民消费 非参数可加模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]