CAFTA对中国和东盟六国双边贸易的影响研究  

Impact of CAFTA on the Bilateral Trade Flow Between China and Six Countries of ASEAN

作　　者：赵金龙[1] 赵明哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2015年第12期89-102,共14页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金"我国FTA战略对外贸与经济的影响研究"(项目编号:13CJY002)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：CAFTA的建立是我国构建FTA战略的重要一环，它的实施对我国与东盟各国的经贸合作产生了重要影响。本文基于1993—2012年中国大陆与其116个贸易伙伴国20年间的贸易数据，运用双重倍差分析法，对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了系统性研究。结果显示：CAFTA对我国与东盟六国间的双边商品贸易产生了显著的促进效应；CAFTA的实施使得中国对东盟6个国家的年平均出口量增加了18％～42％，同时令中国从东盟六国的进口年平均增加31％～62％。这一研究结论既证实了实施CAFTA带来的良好经济效应，又为深化cAFTA合作、打造CAFTA“升级版”提供了现实支撑。The establishment of CAFTA has been an important step to construct China＇s FTA strategy and its implementation has caused important influence on trade and economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries. Based on the bilateral trade data between China mainland and its 116 trade partners from 1993 to 2012, the trade effect of CAFTA has been studied with DID models. Our research results show that the CAFTA had significantly increased the bilateral trade between China's Mainland and the six countries of ASEAN. The implementation of CAFTA had yearly increased China's Mainland＇s export to the six countries of ASEAN by 18 %～42% on average and at the same time China's Mainland＇s imports from the six countries of ASEAN had yearly been increased by 31% ～62% averagely. The research conclusion has confirmed that the implementation of CAFTA had not only brought good economic effect, but deepened the cooperation between CAFTA, providing practical support for the establishment of CAFTA upgrading.

关 键 词：CAFTA 东盟六国 贸易效应 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]