珠海海域台风风暴潮经验预报方法研究  

Statistical Forecast of Storm Surge Research on Sea Area of Zhuhai

作　　者：尹姗姗[1,2] 陈强[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100 [2]国家海洋局珠海海洋环境监测中心站,广东珠海519015

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2015年第11期84-86,共3页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：珠海是台风风暴潮灾害的多发区。根据珠海市三灶站1973-2007年的实测潮位资料,对三灶站台风风暴潮的增水极值进行了统计,通过线性拟合,建立了本站风暴潮最大增水值与相关台风中心气压以及台风与本站距离的相关性,给出了三灶站风暴潮经验预报公式。最后利用2008-2009年的实测资料对预报方程进行了后报检验,检验效果良好,为珠海海域台风风暴潮的预报提供了一定依据。Storm surge frequently occurs on the sea area of Zhuhai. Based on observed data of tide level from 1973 to 2007 in Sanzao station,storm surge was statistically analyzed. The paper shows the correlation between storm surge and meteorological data of the related typhoon through linear fitting. Meanwhile,it gives a storm surge forecast formula. The formula is applied to the hindcast experiment,and gives the reasonable results. The method is useful to forecast the storm surge of Zhuhai sea area.

关 键 词：风暴潮 经验预报方法 珠海 三灶站 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]