Interaction of Land Demand and Supply Effects in Intensive Land Use: a Simulation Study for Chengdu,China  

作　　者：辜寄蓉 陈先伟 江浏光艳 杨海龙 于有翔 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest [2]The Bureau of Land and Resources of Chengdu

出　　处：《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》2015年第4期636-641,共6页东华大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Hundred-Talent Program of Ministry of Land and Resources,China

摘　　要：Intensive land use( ILU) policies affect the demand and supply of land. These policies promote efficient land use, and demands for land must therefore be evaluated in terms of the level of land-use intensity. If the demand is considered excessive, ILU policies act like a "valve"to restrict the land supply. Drawing on data from Chengdu,China,where developable land is scarce,we construct a model using system dynamics( SD) to simulate two scenarios: ILU development and non-ILU development. The results show that when ILU leads to positive land-use efficiency,land supply will exceed demand,resulting in an appropriate level of real demand for the current population level and GDP. Thus,artificial demand( inflated by investors) is reduced. By contrast,when non-ILU leads to negative land-use efficiency,land demand will exceed supply. In this scenario,artificial demand is higher than real demand.Intensive land use（ ILU） policies affect the demand and supply of land. These policies promote efficient land use, and demands for land must therefore be evaluated in terms of the level of land-use intensity. If the demand is considered excessive, ILU policies act like a ＂valve＂to restrict the land supply. Drawing on data from Chengdu,China,where developable land is scarce,we construct a model using system dynamics（ SD） to simulate two scenarios： ILU development and non-ILU development. The results show that when ILU leads to positive land-use efficiency,land supply will exceed demand,resulting in an appropriate level of real demand for the current population level and GDP. Thus,artificial demand（ inflated by investors） is reduced. By contrast,when non-ILU leads to negative land-use efficiency,land demand will exceed supply. In this scenario,artificial demand is higher than real demand.

关 键 词：land demand and supply intensive land use(ILU) developable land land area system dynamics(SD) 

分 类 号：P285.23[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]