农民气候变化认知及工程类适应措施分析  

Farmers' Perception and Engineering Adaptation Measures to Climate Change

作　　者：宋宁[1] 郭路明[1] 宋春晓[1] 刘瑞峰[1] 马恒运[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2015年第22期5761-5766,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：加拿大国际发展研究中心项目(107093-001);国家社科基金一般项目(14BGL093);河南省高校首批哲学社会科学创新团队支持计划项目(2012-CXTD-03);河南省教育厅哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(2013-ZG-006)

摘　　要：农业生产受气候变化影响较大,农民对气候变化的认知决定了他们应对气候变化的行为。本研究基于对华北5省农户的调查,分析了农民对气候变化认知及工程类适应措施情况;用实际气候数据对农民对气候变化认知的正确性进行了评估,并用Logistic模型分析了正确认知气候变化和工程措施采取的决定因素。结果发现,华北平原地区大部分农民已感知到气候变化,对气温变化认知的正确性高于降水变化。影响农民对气温变化和降水变化的显著因素有所不同,前者主要有性别、教育、务农年限、耕地规模、农业生产相关培训、村落的偏远程度、是否在灌溉区内、是否发生旱灾、收到灾害预警信息次数等;后者主要有教育、家庭收入、村落偏远程度、是否在灌区范围、灾害类型以及村里各种协会等;农民采取工程类适应措施的决定因素有务农年限、家庭财富、拥有地面管道、收到灾害预警信息次数、水利措施状况等。并据此提出政策建议。Agricultural production is closely related to the climatic condition, and farmers perception to the climate change determined their corresponding action. Based on a survey of 1 350 household from 5 provinces in North China Plain, the farmers perception and engineering adaptation measures to climate change were analyzed to assess the perception correctness of climate change using the actual meteorological data, and a logistic model was estimated to analyze the deciding factors affecting the farmers perception correctness and engineering adaptation measures. It concluded that, the majority of farmers in north China Plain have perceived climate change, with the perception correctness to temperature higher than to precipitation. The influencing factors on the perception of temperature included： gender, education, farming experience, land area, agricultural production training, remoteness, irrigation area, extreme weather and weather information. The influencing factors on the perception of precipitation included： education, household income, the irrigation area, extreme year, and various village associations. The influencing factors on the engineering adaptation measures included： farming experience, household wealth, ground pipeline, weather information and water conservancy measures, and so on. Accordingly some political suggestions for improving farmers perception and adaptation measures to climate change were provided.

关 键 词：气候变化 农民认知 工程措施 极端天气 决定因素 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S42[农业科学—植物保护]