基于箭型止回阀案例的模糊可靠性评价方法  

Research on Fuzzy Reliability Approach in View of Arrow-type Check Valves

作　　者：汪凯[1] 张晓东[1] 李一岚[1] 杨文武[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学机电工程学院,成都610500

出　　处：《机械设计与研究》2015年第6期127-130,共4页Machine Design And Research

基　　金：国家重大科技资助项目(2011ZX050406)

摘　　要：在过去的几十年中故障树分析方法一直被用来安全评价,传统的故障树分析方法是基于失效模式有准确的失效数据。但是,对于一个全新的系统由于缺乏失效数据和历史故障记录,尤其是在油气钻探现场,现有的故障树分析方法不能满足复杂多变的井下工况。基于模糊数学理论提出了一种模糊可靠性安全评价方法,利用模糊数的隶属函数实现定量计算分析,对多影响因素事件做出整体评价。结合箭型止回阀案例计算分析,验证了这种模糊可靠性安全评价方法的可行性和有效性。此外,通过对比分析该方法的计算结果和已知失效数据,两者相对误差也合理。因此,这种方法可用于评价历史失效数据不充足的非确定性事件,可实现对油气钻探现场井下工具的可靠性分析。In the last few decades fault tree analysis has been utilized to safety assessment. In conventional fault tree analysis, it is assumed that fault modes have precise failure probability distributions. However, if an object under assessment is absolutely new, there will be insufficient data and no history records to utilize. Especially in oil and gas drilling field, the existing fault tree analysis method cannot effectively solve problems due to the complexity and variability of down-hole conditions. The study proposes an approach to safety assessment based on fuzzy mathematics. Using the membership theory of fuzzy mathematics turns qualitative evaluation into quantitative evaluation, and makes a general evaluation to multi-constraint events. The case study of arrow-type check valve has demonstrated the fuzzy reliability approach can be a feasible and effective method to safety assessment. In addition, the calculated resuhs are very close to the known failure possibility, and the relative error rate is reasonable. Simultaneously, the results can explain problems on the plant site. Consequently, the study has proposed a new approach for safety evaluation which can be utilized in uncertain problems when historical data is deficiency, and can be applied to solving reliability problems in oil and gas drilling site.

关 键 词：模糊可靠性方法 安全评价 隶属函数 箭型止回阀 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]