采用模糊分类法构建鄱阳湖流域旱涝文献代用资料序列  

Constructing Literature Proxy Data Sequences of Drought and Flood in Poyang Lake Basin by Using Fuzzy Classification

作　　者：王怀清[1] 殷剑敏[1] 孔萍[1] 姜智怀[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西省气候中心,江西南昌330046

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2015年第12期89-93,98,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项"鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝灾害资料序列构建与分析"(CCSF201223)

摘　　要：搜集整理江西省49种地方志中有关气象灾害的记录,制定了旱涝等级判断标准;采用模糊分类法,评判每条记录所反映的旱涝等级,构建了鄱阳湖流域在公元48～1950年的旱涝灾害代用资料序列;将洪涝、干旱灾害各分为重度、中度、轻度3个等级,对旱涝等级序列进行了初步研究。结果表明：鄱阳湖流域洪涝发生频率高于干旱,约“三年一涝、四年一旱”;在旱、涝资料序列中均以中度等级频率最高,其次是重度等级,以轻度等级频率最低,且旱涝序列均呈偏态分布的特征;赣江下游在不同时期均为洪涝发生频率最高的区域,环鄱阳湖区则为干旱灾害频率最高的区域。This research collected and sorted the meteorological disasters records within 49 kinds of local chronicles of Jiangxi province, and formulated the standards for judging the grade of drought and flood disasters. By using fuzzy classification method to judge the grade of drought and flood reflected by each record, we built the proxy data sequences of drought and flood disasters in the Poyang Lake basin from the year 48 to 1950. Drought and flood disasters were classified into severe, moderate and light levels, and the sequences of drought and flood grade were studied. The results showed that： （ 1 ） flood occurred more frequently than drought, and flood happened once every three years while drought happened once every four years; （2） the moderate drought and flood oc- curred most frequently, followed by severe level, and light level was the last. The sequences of drought and flood showed the charac- teristic of skew distribution; （3） flood occurred most frequently in the lower reaches of the Gan River at different times, while drought occurred most frequently in the region around the Poyang Lake.

关 键 词：模糊分类法 鄱阳湖流域 旱涝 文献 代用资料 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]