我国农村水利投资的最优规模测度研究  

Study on Measurement of Optimal Investment Scale for Rural Water Conservancy in China

作　　者：黄一萌 尹庆民[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2015年第12期128-131,136,共5页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：江苏省社科基金项目(12EYB004)

摘　　要：在Barro得出的经济增长率与政府支出规模间倒U型函数关系的理论基础上,合理推断出农村水利存在最优投资规模,并预期测量了农村水利最优投资规模。考虑到农村水利具有拥挤效应,因此,首先构建了农村水利拥挤效应的测度模型,再构建了引入拥挤效应的农村水利最优投资规模测量模型,并运用1999～2013年的数据进行了实证分析,得出以下结论：（1）我国农村水利确实存在拥挤效应,拥挤效应为-0.3469;（2）我国农村水利最优投资规模为6.73%,历年农村水利投资均低于其最优规模,但一直不断增加,平均增长幅度约为6.5个百分点。Barro＇ s study concluded that the inverted U-shaped function relationship existed between the economic growth rate and the size of government spending. Based on this theory, we legitimately inferred and measured the optimal investment scale for ru- ral water conservancy. Considering that the rural water conservancy had crowding effect, this research firstly developed an estimation model for the crowding effect of rural water conservancy, and then built the optimal investment scale （RIOIS） measurement model for rural-water conservancy, in which the crowding effect was introduced; finally conducted an empirical analysis according to the data from 1999 to 2013. Our conclusions came to these points： （1） the crowding effect of rural water conservancy existed really in China, being -0.3469. （2） the optimal investment scale for rural water conservancy was 6.73%. Over the years in China, the in- vestment scale for rural water conservancy was always lower than the optimal investment scale, but it had continued to increase, with an average growth rate of about 6.5 percent points.

关 键 词：农村水利投资 拥挤效应 最优投资规模 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]