基于灰色关联度的铁路货运量关键影响因子选取方法研究  

Study on Selection Methods of Key Influence Factors of Railway Freight Transport Volume based on Grey Correlation

作　　者：李瑞[1] 代明睿[1] 李凤姿 

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院运输及经济研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道货运》2015年第11期11-14,5,共4页Railway Freight Transport

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2014X009-G)

摘　　要：影响铁路货运量的因素众多、关系复杂,而且不同因素对于铁路货运量变化的影响程度不同。通过对影响铁路货运量的各方面因素进行分析,从宏观经济、铁路货运市场供需、物流环境?3?个方面选取具有代表性的、可量化的指标作为货运量影响因子,利用灰色关联度分析模型,求解出各影响因子序列与铁路货运量之间的关联度,并根据关联度排序情况进一步确定影响因子与铁路货运量的紧密程度,从而实现对铁路货运量关键影响因子的筛选。The factors influencing railway freight transport volume are diversified and have complex relationships, and different factor has different influence degree on the change of railway freight transport volume. Through analyzing each factor influencing railway freight transport volume, from 3 aspects including macro-economy, supply and demand of railway freight market as well as logistic environment, the representative and quantifiable indices were selected as influence factors of freight transport volume, then the correlation between each influence factor sequence and railway freight transport volume was solved by using grey correlation analysis, and the close degree between influence factor and railway freight transport volume was further determined according to the correlation sequencing situation, so as to realize the selection on key influence factors of railway freight transport volume.

关 键 词：铁路货运量 灰色关联度 影响因子 

分 类 号：U294.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]