关于旅游消费者购买指数预测建模仿真研究  

Modeling and Simulation of Purchase Index Prediction for Tourism Consumers

作　　者：龙映宏[1] 李布明[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学信息科学技术学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2015年第12期455-458,共4页Computer Simulation

基　　金：海南省自然基金(614225)

摘　　要：在旅游消费者购买指数优化预测建模过程中,影响消费者购买的因素无法固定,缺少影响消费者购买的指标,采用传统的算法预测旅游消费者购买指数时,对消费者购买行为中存在的变量特征数据提取不准确,导致建模误差大、精度低的问题。提出关于旅游消费者购买指数预测建模方法。先对旅游消费者购买行为进行详细的分析,获取能够影响旅游消费者购买行为的因素,同时计算在旅游消费者购买行为中存在的变量,在融合于大数据分析算法,依据影响旅游消费者购买行为的因素和消费者购买行为中存在的变量间的相关度组建了精确的消费者购买指数模型。仿真结果表明,以上研究可为旅游消费者购买指数预测建模精度优化提供科学依据。In the process of purchase index optimization prediction modeling of tourism consumers, the factors influencing the purchase of consumers cannot be fixed, it lacks of the index influencing consumers to purchase. When the traditional algorithm is used to predict the purchase index of tourism consumers, the characteristic data ex- traction of variable in consumer purchase behavior is inaccurate, which causes the big modeling errors and low accu- racy. A purchase index prediction modeling method of tourism consumers is proposed. The purchase behavior of tourism consumers is firstly analyzed to obtain the factors which can affect the purchase behavior of tourism consumers, at the same time, the variables existed in purchase behavior of tourism consumers are calculated, and then they are fused into the big data analysis algorithm. Based on the factors influencing purchase behavior of tourism consumers and the relevancy between the variables existed in consumer purchase behavior, an accurate consumer purchase index model is set up. Simulation shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：旅游者决策 消费行为 购买指数 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]