青岛近海大型水母漂移集合预测方法研究  

Study on the ensemble forecast of large jellyfish drift in the coastal waters of Qingdao

作　　者：吴玲娟[1] 高松[1] 刘桂艳[1] 白涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室,国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266033

出　　处：《海洋预报》2015年第2期62-71,共10页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家海洋局公益性科研行业专项(201005018)

摘　　要：考虑水母垂直运动等自主运动,基于集合预报和拉格朗日粒子追踪方法,建立青岛近海大型水母的集合漂移预测模型。并利用2012—2013年青岛近海水母实时监测数据和集合漂移预测模型,快速预测水母集合漂移轨迹、速度、趋势和可能影响范围等要素。通过分析水母监测数据和数值模拟结果,在水母如何自主运动及其机理尚不十分清楚的情况下,多轨迹漂移预测结果比单轨迹的更合理、科学、可信,能够传达更多的信息量,对水母灾害的应急处置更具有指导意义。In this paper, by considering the vertical movement of large jellyfish, the ensemble drift model of jellyfish in the coastal waters of Qingdao is developed based on ensemble forecast and lagrange particle tracking method. By using observation during 2012-2013, ensemble drift forecast model is carried out to predict ensemble drift trajectory, velocity, trend, and affected scope of jellyfish. Through analysis of observation and numerical simulation results, the results show that ensemble forecast of drift trajectory is more reasonable, scientific,reliable than single forecast, and able to provide more information to deal with jellyfish disaster.

关 键 词：水母灾害 集合预报 水母垂直运动 漂移预测 

分 类 号：Q958.8[生物学—动物学]