中国-东盟经济自由贸易区的贸易效应与经济效应研究——一种政府绩效评估的模式  

作　　者：李涛[1] 朱顺和[2] 郭氏云英 

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学管理学院 [2]澳门科技大学商学院 [3]广西民族大学

出　　处：《企业经济》2015年第12期151-156,共6页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"职业价值观;职业兴趣与职业生涯发展:以民族地区大学生的视角"(批准号:71263009)

摘　　要：中国与东盟于2010年建立《中国-东盟经济自由贸易区》,以促进中国与东盟国家之间双边贸易,增进中国与东盟国家的经济发展。文章在借鉴Balassa(1978)及Ribeiro Ramos(2001)研究的基础上,利用1993-2014年之年度数据,展开中国-东盟CAFTA的贸易效应及经济效应的实证分析。研究发现,中国-东盟CAFTA期间,中国GDP增长与中国从东盟国家进口值存在着贸易转移效应;中国対东盟国家进出口值与中国GDP增长存在协整关系:其中,中国对东盟国家出口值对中国GDP增长有正向影响,中国从东盟国家进口值对中国GDP增长有负向影响。中国-东盟CAFTA的发展重点在于:一是应致力于调节出口产品结构,提高出口产品质量;二是加大直接投资贸易,以带动投资发展效应;三是促进信息制造业的发展。In 2010, China and ASEAN established CAFTA in order to promote trades between China and ASEAN countries and also increase economic development of China and ASEAN countries. Referring to the prior studies of Balassa（1978） and Ribeiro Ramos （2001）, this study uses the annual data from 1993 to 2014 to investigate the trade effect and economic effect of CAb＇TA. The empirical results of this study show that there is trade diversion effect between the growth of GDP in China and imports of China from ASEAN countries during CAFTA. Secondly, there is a cointegrating relationship between the growth of GDP in China and imports and exports between China and ASEAN countries. Furthermore, this study also finds out that exports of China to ASEAN countries have a positive impact on growth of GDP in China, whereas imports of China from ASEAN countries have a negative impact on growth of GDP in China. Therefore, this study suggests that the develop- ment of China ASEAN CAFTA should focus on adjusting the structure of export products and improving the quality of ex- port products, direct investment in trade in order to promote the development of investment and promote the development of information manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：中国-东盟经济自由贸易区 贸易效应 经济效应 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]