基于CA-模糊综合评价法的拥挤踩踏事故分析  

Analysis of Stampede Accidents Based on CA-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：王丹[1] 徐翠翠[1] 于海明[1] 文金浩[1] 白若男[1] 刘国明[1] 王昊[1] 王云[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学矿业与安全工程学院,山东青岛266590 [2]海湾安全技术有限公司北京分公司,北京100872

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2015年第12期1-3,25,共4页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(51404147);国家自然科学基金煤炭联合基金重点项目(U1261205)

摘　　要：以某高校体育场举办庆典活动为例,采用元胞自动机(CA)模拟大型活动中发生事故后的人员疏散情况,得到事故发生后人员逃生规律及疏散总时间,由此判断可能造成的人群拥挤地点和时间。结合模糊综合评价方法对整个活动的安全状况进行总体评估,确定事故发生的影响因素,建立指标体系,运用Matlab遗传算法工具箱计算权重,最终判定大型活动的整体安全水平为较安全。将此方法应用到大型活动的安全评价预警中,能更好地预防和控制活动中拥挤踩踏事故的发生。In the case of a university stadium celebration activities, the CA is applied to simulate the personnel flow of after the accident happens at a big event, personnel escape rule and total evacuation time are concluded after the accident. Based on conclnsions above, the possible place and time the crowd is judged. Besides, combined with the fuzzy comprebensive evaluation method, the safety status of the entire activity is overall assessed, the affecting factors are preliminarily determined, the index system is established and weights are calculated by using the Matlab genetic algorithm toolbox and finally the large - scale activities of the overall security level is safe. By applying the method in the safety evaluation warning at the major events, the emergency of the crowded stampede is able to be prevented and controlled better.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 模糊综合评价 MATLAB遗传算法工具箱 权重 风险等级 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]