随机模拟暴露参数的地下饮用水中污染物健康风险评价  

Health Risk Assessment of the Pollutants in the Underground Drinking Water Based on the Stochastic Simulated Exposure Parameters

作　　者：郑德凤[1] 苏琳[1] 李红英 孙才志[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁省水文局,辽宁沈阳110003

出　　处：《地下水》2015年第6期87-90,共4页Ground water

基　　金：教育部高等学校博士点专项科研基金项目(20122136110003);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L13BJL019)

摘　　要：饮用水污染健康风险评价在参数确定,暴露评估与风险表征过程中均存在不确定性因素,分析评价过程中的不确定性有助于提高评价结果的准确性和科学性。应用Monte Carlo方法随机模拟风险评价的暴露参数,将模拟的部分暴露参数随机数组代入污染物摄入剂量计算模型和饮用水污染健康风险评价模型,对盘锦市六个饮用水源地地下水中化学致癌物和非致癌污染物通过不同暴露途径所致健康危害的风险率进行分析与计算。结果表明:化学致癌物对人体健康危害远大于非致癌物,非致癌物所致人体健康风险可以忽略。六个地下饮用水源地跨途径总致癌风险均超过人体最大可接受风险水平。污染物经饮水途径所致人体健康危害大于呼吸途径,呼吸途径所致人体健康风险可以忽略。水源地中大洼水源地存在的致癌风险率最大,其次是兴一和兴南水源地,盘山县的石山、高升和盘东水源地存在的致癌风险最小。There are some uncertain factors in the process of health risk assessment of the pollutants in drinking water, such as parameter determination, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The uncertainty analysis in the evaluation process will be helpful to enhance the accuracy and scientificity of results. Considering the uncertainty of some parameters in the model, the Monte Carlo method was used to simulate stochastically the exposure parameters, then the simulated random number groups of exposure parameters were substituted into the formula of pollutants intake dosage. Moreover, the model on health risk of groundwater pollutants based on the stochastic simulated exposure parameters was established. By using the a-bove model, the health risk rates from carcinogens and non-carcinogens by drinking water and breathing approach could be respectively calculated in the sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin. The results showed that the risk rates from carcinogens to human health were greatly bigger than risk rates from non-carcinogens, so risk from non-carcinogens wasn＇ t usually paid attention by people. The health risk rates from all the contaminants by drinking water were greater than the risk rates by breath-ing approach which can be generally neglected. The health risk rates from carcinogens in underground drinking water had al-ready exceeded the maximum acceptable risk level of the human body. Among these sources of drinking groundwater in Pan-jin, the health risk values from all the contaminants in Dawa groundwater source was highest, the risk values in Xingyi and Xingnan groundwater sources were in the middle, and the risk values in Shishan, Gaosheng and Pandong groundwater sources were the least.

关 键 词：环境科学 健康风险 地下饮用水 污染物 MONTE CARLO方法 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]