基于农业生态系统耦合的退耕还林工程影响评估  

Impact of sloping land conversion program on coupling of agricultural ecological system

作　　者：汪阳洁[1] 姜志德[2] 王继军[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,长沙410083 [2]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100 [3]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,杨凌712100

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第12期3155-3163,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71503276;41571515);中科院知识创新工程重大项目(KSCX-YW-09-07);中国博士后科学基金(2015M570694)

摘　　要：基于黄土丘陵退耕区米脂、安塞和吴起三县的农户抽样调查数据,运用灰色关联分析法定量测算该区域农业生态系统耦合协调发展态势,在此基础上建立计量经济模型实证分析国家退耕还林工程对农业生态系统耦合的影响.研究结果表明:1)黄土丘陵退耕区生态资源与农业生产耦合处于一种中度协调发展态势,并没有实现完全匹配与协调发展;2)退耕还林工程对样本地区农业生态系统的有序耦合产生了抑制作用,表现为退耕还林对农户生产结构调整激励不足.新一轮退耕还林工程的推进有必要考虑制定相应的激励措施,引导农户建立与生态资源禀赋相适应的、协调的农业生产模式.同时考虑将农业适应气候变化纳入退耕还林工程,以提高生态脆弱区的适应能力.该研究为我国生态脆弱地区农业发展和生态治理的政策制定提供决策依据.Based on the field survey data set of households in Mizhi,Ansai and Wuqi in loess hilly regions,this paper introduced the grey relational model and measured the coupling degree of agricultural ecological system.Based on this,the paper further empirically examined the impact of sloping land conversion program（SLCP） on the coupling of agricultural ecological system.The results show that：1）The coupling of agricultural ecological system in loess hilly regions is in a moderate state,yet not fully achieving the reasonable matching and coordinating situation;2） SLCP makes a significantly negative effect on the coupling of agricultural ecological system,denoting that the SLCP cannot effectively encourage farmers to adjust their agricultural structure.Therefore the Chinese government should take the effect into consideration when launching a new round of SLCP,and should also mainstream agricultural adaptation to climate change into the SLCP for improving the adaptive capacity of the loess hilly regions.This research is proposed to provide useful inputs for the government＇s decision making on agricultural development and ecological rehabilitation policy in fragile ecological areas.

关 键 词：退耕还林工程 系统耦合 生态资源 农业生产 黄土丘陵区 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]