东亚经济体汇率制度的迁跃——基于结构突变点检验  

The Shift of the Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asian Economies:Based on Structural Break Point Test

作　　者：李婧[1] 解祥优 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2015年第6期100-110,共11页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘一带一路’战略实施中推进人民币国际化问题研究"(项目编号:2015ZDA017);首都经济贸易大学特别委托项目"人民币国际化进程中的黄金储备战略研究"

摘　　要：文章利用新外部货币锚模型结合结构突变点检验,探究东亚经济体汇率制度的迁跃。实证分析结果表明,考察期内,中国香港、韩国和菲律宾的汇率制度没有发生变化,其余东亚经济体都调整了汇率制度,且调整步伐具有一定的联动性。这意味着东亚经济体可能存在着正式或非正式的汇率制度合作,也可能是对外部经济环境产生的相似反应。美元和韩元在东亚地区发挥了重要的锚货币作用,欧元、日元仅在特定阶段充当过中国和新加坡参考的篮子货币。美元在东亚地区的影响力正在逐渐减弱,部分东亚经济体表现出很强的"去美元化"特征。东亚经济体的汇率制度正朝着更加弹性化的方向发展。This paper explores the shift of the exchange rate regimes in East Asian economies by using the new external currency anchor model and structural break point test. The empirical results show that,during the observed period,Hong Kong of China,the Republic of Korea and the Philippines haven＇t changed their exchange rate regimes,other East Asian economies have adjusted their exchange rate regimes,and the paces of adjustment were interconnected to some extent. The results suggest that East Asian economies may have established formal or informal cooperation in exchange rate regimes,or may take a similar response to the external economic environment. The US dollar and Korean won have played an important role as anchor currencies in East Asia,the euro and the yen served as basket currencies for the RMB and the Singapore dollar during some particular periods.The influence of the US dollar in East Asia is declining,and it is clear that several East Asian economies had a strong desire to de- peg from the US dollar. The exchange rate regimes of East Asian economies are moving to a more flexible direction.

关 键 词：汇率制度分类 锚货币 汇率制度弹性 结构突变点检验 新外部货币锚模型 

分 类 号：F833[经济管理—金融学]