收入分配与汇率变动——基于制度内生性视角的解释  

Income Distribution Effects on Exchange Rate

作　　者：李子联[1] 朱江丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学商学院 [2]南京大学新闻传播学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2015年第12期47-54,125,共8页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(批准号:13CJL011)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：从内生性制度的角度来解释内外失衡所带来的汇率变动更符合逻辑演绎的本质要求,而收入分配作为一项制度,其结果的不平等是影响结构失衡和人民币汇率变动的重要因素。机理在于:收入分配不平等在带来储蓄率提高进而投资率上升的同时,也带来了消费率的下降,使得消费相对不足所带来的产能过剩只能通过出口贸易的渠道得以有效化解,而后者则促进了贸易顺差的形成及扩大;从长期来看,贸易顺差的持续扩大既增加了外汇占款进而增加了人民币需求,又带来了国际游资炒作所引致的升值预期增强,两者都最终促进了人民币的升值。可见,促进人民币汇率的合理估值并发挥其在"新常态"下稳定进出口增长的作用,应从根本上深化收入分配制度改革,以改变经济结构内外失衡的局面。More logic rules are required to explain the fluctuation caused by internal and external structural imbalance from the view of endogenous institution. Income inequality,as a result of income distribution which is also a kind of institution,is an important factor which influences structural imbalance and RMB exchange rate. The mechanism of this influence is that: income inequality increases savings rate and capital foundation rate,while decreases consumption rate,which both makes problems of excess production capacity caused by under-consumption only solved by export. It promotes the form of trade surplus and makes it expand continually. And then,it promotes the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Therefore,to promote rational valuation of RMB exchange rate,and to play a role in stabilizing the growth of import and export in the 'new normal',we should deepen the reform of income distribution institution fundamentally,and change the pattern of inner and external structural imbalance.

关 键 词：收入分配 汇率变动 内生性制度 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]