基于降水预报信息的棉花滩水库汛限水位动态控制模型  

Rainfall forecast information based-dynamic control model of flood limited water level for Mianhuatan Reservoir

作　　者：孙甜[1] 董增川[1] 朱振业[1] 缪萍萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2015年第4期114-118,共5页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：为了提高汛期洪水资源的利用率,对棉花滩水库进行了汛限水位动态控制研究。从汛限水位动态控制条件、历次洪水预报误差等方面分析棉花滩水库实施动态控制的可行性。以2010年复核的汛限水位为基础,基于实时预蓄预泄方法,根据流域的短期降水预报信息、面临时刻水情信息、工情和灾情信息,结合洪水预报,确定适用于棉花滩水库的预蓄预泄调度模型,制定水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案,并进行相应的风险分析及效益计算。此方案在不降低原设计防洪标准的前提下,可增加水库蓄水量与发电效益。In order to enhance flood water utilization rate during flood season,the dynamic control of the flood limited water level of Mianhuatan Reservoir is studied herein. The feasibility of the implementation of the dynamic control of the reservoir is analyzed from the aspects of the conditions for the dynamic control of the flood limited water level,the errors from all the previous flood forecasts,etc. Based on the rechecked flood limited water level in 2010,a pre-storage and pre-discharge operation model adaptable for Mianhuatan Reservoir is determined and the real-time dynamic control scheme of the flood limited water level for the reservoir is made in combination with flood forecast according to the short-term precipitation forecast information of the river basin,the hydrological information,engineering information and disaster information to be faced with,and then the relevant risk analysis and benefit calculation are carried out as well. Under the premise that is not to lower the original design flood control standards,the storage and power generation benefit can be enhanced by this scheme.

关 键 词：棉花滩水库 汛限水位 动态控制 实时预蓄预泄 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]