中国跨国逃避资本影响因素分析——基于美国QE政策的实证分析  

Analysis of the factors affecting China's transnational evasion of capital——An empirical study based on the QE policy of the United States

作　　者：游碧蓉[1] 杨朝英[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第6期34-39,共6页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：福建省教育厅项目(K8011011)

摘　　要：利用美国QE政策期间的数据对中国跨国逃避资本的影响因素进行实证分析,实证研究表明:预期价格指数、中美利差、人民币汇率与跨国逃避资本之间并不存在统计上的依赖关系;上海证券交易所综合股价指数对跨国逃避资本具有贡献度,但贡献度不明显;美元指数和房地产景气指数对跨国逃避资本有显著影响。因此,为了防范跨国逃避资本对中国经济和金融的冲击,目前应加快汇率市场化改革、促进房地产市场平稳发展以及加强对跨国逃避资本的监管。According to analysis of the factors affecting China＇ s transnational evasion of capital with the data during the U. S. QE policy,the empirical results show as follows. There is no dependency relationship between transnational evasion of capital and the expected price index,Sino US spreads,and the RMB exchange rate. The Chinese stock index has only a modest impact on the international capital,but the U.S. dollar index and the real estate boom in China has a significant impact on the scale of transnational evasion of capital. Therefore,in order to prevent the economy and financial shock,China has to accelerate the exchange rate market reformation,keep the stability of the real estate market and strengthen the supervision of cross-border capital evasion.

关 键 词：跨国逃避资本 人民币汇率 美元指数 房地产景气指数 QE政策 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]