一种改进的太阳辐射MOS预报模型研究  

IMPROVED MOS MODEL FOR SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTING

作　　者：孙朋杰 陈正洪 成驰 白龙[3] 张雪婷 

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象服务中心,武汉430074 [2]湖北省气象能源技术开发中心,武汉430074 [3]福建省气候中心,福州350001

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2015年第12期3048-3053,共6页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：财政部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006036;GYHY201306048);湖北省气象科技发展基金(2013Q06)

摘　　要：通过对常规MOS(Model Output Statistics)方法进行一定改进,建立改进的太阳辐射预报模型,达到提升预报效果的目的。考虑到大气对辐射的削弱作用,将实际辐射转换为清晰度指数,去除了天文辐射的影响;另外,由于不同天气类型条件会对太阳辐射产生较大影响,在进行建模之前利用Fisher判别分析方法对天气类型进行分类,将同季节同时次同天气类型的要素进行归类分析;同时,考虑到太阳辐射的季节性变化和日变化特征,影响太阳辐射各要素的权重会有所变化,建立不同季节、不同时次的预报模型;最后,考虑到系统误差的延续性,将建立的初时次模型预报值与实际值的误差作为其他时次的一个因子变量,建立后续临近时次预报模型。结果表明:所建模型的模拟值能反映实际的太阳辐射变化情况,达到建模要求;对比常规的MOS方法,改进的MOS模型在拟合期的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)降低约20%,可明显提升预报效果;以2012年8月份作为预报期进行模型预报评估,预报期的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为28.33%,相对均方根误差(r RMSE)为16.20%,模型预报效果较好。Model output statistics （MOS） is a relatively simple and reliable method for forecasting solar radiation. Based on improved conventional MOS method, a improved radiation forecast model was set up to improve the forecasting effect. Considering the weakening effect of atmosphere on radiation, the actual radiation was converted to articulation index to remove astronomical solar radiation impact. Besides, owing to greater impacts of different weather conditions on solar radiation, weather type was classified by using Fisher method before modeling. Meteorological elements of the same weather type, at the same times and in the same season were regarded as a same type. Considering weight changes of solar radiation elements resulted by seasonal and diurnal change characteristics of the solar radiation, the forecast model for different seasons and different times was built. Finally, considering the continuity of the system error, the error of initial model forecast value and the actual value could be regarded as a variable which would be used to build later hours forecast equation. The results show that the analog values of the model can reflect the actual changes in solar radiation and meet the modeling requirement. The mean absolute percentage error （MAPE） of improved MOS model is about 20% less than that of conventional MOS model, significantly improving the forecasting results. August 2012 as the forecast period, the MAPE is 28.33% in forecast period, and the rRMSE is 16.20%. These results show a good prediction skill of the model.

关 键 词：太阳辐射 MOS 辐射预报 模型改进 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]