中日美宏观经济政策汇率溢出效应分析  

A Research of the Exchange Rate Spillover Effect of Macroeconomic Policies of China,Japan and the United States

作　　者：黄万阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2016年第1期11-21,共11页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"‘十二五’时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究"(10zd&010);国家社科基金重大项目"新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究"(15ZDA011);国家社科基金项目"人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题实证研究"(11BJY014);国家自然科学基金项目"‘战略-共生’聚合构念下我国服务外包企业跨越国际陷阱的路径设计及反俘获竞争力研究"(71302054);国家自然科学基金项目"因变量误分类下的二元面板数据模型估计方法研究"(71471030);辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目"钓鱼岛争端与日元贬值背景下辽宁对日经贸发展问题实证研究"(W2013221)

摘　　要：美国次贷危机以来,中日美宏观经济政策出现重大变化,全球主要货币汇率波动剧烈,两者之间是否存在某种关联?本文利用30个国家1980—2012年跨国面板数据,研究中日美宏观经济政策汇率溢出效应。研究发现:中日美宏观经济政策存在显著的汇率溢出效应;日美财政政策扩张存在汇率贬值溢出效应,日美货币政策扩张存在汇率升值溢出效应;中国财政政策扩张存在汇率升值溢出效应,中国货币政策扩张存在汇率贬值溢出效应。因此,中国、日本、美国政府不应推出过于激进的财政政策和货币政策措施。中国政府应长期坚持稳健的财政政策和货币政策,日本安倍政府推出的史无前例的量化宽松货币政策应适可而止,美国退出定量宽松的货币政策应采取渐进方式。Since the Subprime Crisis, the macroeconomic policies of China, Japan and the United States have hugely changed. The exchange rate among the global main currencies have sharply fluctuated, is there the relation between them？ Using panel data on over 30 countries over the 1980--2012 period, this paper studies the exchange rate spillover effects of the macroeconomic policies of China, Japan and the United States. The eprirical study shows that in long term the exchange rate spillover effects of the macroeconomic policies of China, Japan and the United States is significant. The expansionary fiscal policy of Japan and the United States have the depreciation spillover effects on the exchange rate. The expansionary monetary policy of Japan and the United States have the appreciation spillover effects on the exchange rate. China＇ s expansionary fiscal policy have the appreciation spillover effects on the exchange rate. China＇ s expan- sionary monetary policy have the depreciation spillover effects on the exchange rate. The governments of China, Japan and the United States shouldn＇ t push out the excessively radical measures of fiscal policy and monetary policy. The Chinese government should insist the moderate fiscal policy and monetary policy in long term. The Japanese government should terminate the unprecedented expansionary monetary policy in appropriate opportunity. The American government should gradually exit the quantitative easing mone- tary policy.

关 键 词：宏观经济政策 汇率 溢出效应 政府消费支出 货币供给量 

分 类 号：F133.130[经济管理—世界经济]