基于改进证据理论的导弹状态评估方法  

Missile condition assessment method based on improved evidence theory

作　　者：丛林虎[1] 徐廷学[1] 董琪[1] 杨继坤[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院 [2]92493部队

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2016年第1期70-76,共7页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国防预研基金(401080102)资助课题

摘　　要：针对目前导弹状态评估存在的问题,在分析导弹状态参数的基础上,建立了导弹状态参数体系,并将导弹状态按照实现其特定功能分为良好状态、较好状态、堪用状态、拟故障状态和故障状态,进而设计了一种基于改进证据理论的多指标融合导弹状态评估方法。针对D-S证据理论应用于导弹状态评估存在的证据源权重分配、合成过程中未知信息处理及冲突分配等问题,在分析现有改进方法的基础上,采用状态参数的权重系数对原始证据源进行修正,并基于全局冲突应在引起冲突的焦元之间进行局部分配的思想对证据理论进行了改进。通过实例分析,验证了改进方法的有效性及设计的导弹状态评估方法的正确性。In view of the problem of missile condition assessment at present,the system of the missile condition parameter is established based on analyzing missile condition parameters,and the missile condition is classified into：good,better,useful,pseudo-fault and fault.Further more,a method of the missile condition assessment based on multi-index integration of the improved evidence theory is designed.For the problems of weight allocation for original evidence,new information processing and conflict allocation in the process of using the D-S evidence theory to deal with missile condition assessment,the evidence theory is improved by using weight coefficient of the condition parameter to adjust original evidence,and allocating global conflicts to conflict evidences on the basis of analyzing improved evidence theories at present.By analyzing the instance,the efficiency of the improved method and the validity of the missile condition assessment method are verified.

关 键 词：证据理论 导弹 状态评估 多指标融合 

分 类 号：TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]