NGVM模型及其在城市群道路网交通事故预测中的应用  

Novel Grey Verhulst Prediction Model and Its Applications in Predicting Traffic Accidents of Urban Road Network

作　　者：王宏[1] 崔杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]淮阴工学院,淮安223003

出　　处：《价值工程》2016年第2期200-202,共3页Value Engineering

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(12YJA630122)

摘　　要：为完善灰色预测模型的理论体系,在灰色Verhulst模型建模机理的基础上,考虑相关因素对系统预测精度的影响,构建了新型灰色Verhulst模型,提出该模型建模参数的计算公式,并给予完整的数学证明。以微积分作为推理工具,得到该模型的时间响应式。通过城市群道路网交通事故预测实例对其建模精度进行验证。计算结果表明新灰色Verhulst模型的有效性。In order to improve the theoretical systems of grey prediction models, on the basis of modeling mechanism of grey verhulst model, this paper constructs a novel grey verhulst model considering related factors affecting forecasting precision of a system, and proposes the formula computing the parameters of the novel grey model by the least square method. The function of respond to the time sequence of the novel grey model is solved by taking differential equations as a deductive reasoning tool. Finally, a numerical study of traffic accidents of urban road network demonstrated the modeling accuracy of this novel grey model. Research results show the proposed model can increase the prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 灰色预测模型 新灰色Verhulst模型 建模精度 

分 类 号：N941[自然科学总论—系统科学]