基于粮食安全的吉林省耕地需求量预测  

The Prediction of Farmland Demand of Jilin Province Based on Food Security

作　　者：胡海峰[1] 卞凤鸣[1] 贾玫[1] 张荣荣 

机构地区：[1]吉林省国土资源调查规划研究院,吉林长春130061 [2]东乌珠穆沁旗民族综合高中,内蒙古锡林郭勒026300

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第33期276-278,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401146);吉林省国土资源厅软科学项目(201401)

摘　　要：从粮食安全的角度对耕地需求量进行预测,采用多指标构建耕地需求量预测模型。根据2005~2014年吉林省耕地面积和人口数据,通过预测区域总人口、人均粮食需求量、粮食自给率、粮食播面单产、复种指数、粮作比,结合耕地需求量预测模型,预测得出2020年吉林省基于粮食安全的耕地需求量为535.76万hm2。这一结果与《吉林省土地利用总体规划（2006~2020年）》确定的耕地保有量551.93万hm2有所偏差,但结果较为合理,且具有预警性。This paper predicts the demand of farmland based on food security,builts the forecasting model of the farmland demand by multiple index. According to the cultivated land area and population data of Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014,through the forecast demand of regional population,per capita grain,grain self-sufficiency,per unit area yield of grain on surface,multiple crop index,food crops proportion,combined with the cultivated land demand prediction model,predict that the farmland demand based on the food security of Jilin Province in 2020 will be 5. 357 6 million hm2. The result deviates with the＂Jilin Province general land use planning（ 2006- 2020） ＂,determine 5. 519 3 million hm2 of the ownership land,but the result is more reasonable,and a warning.

关 键 词：粮食安全 耕地需求量 预测 吉林省 

分 类 号：S29[农业科学—农业水土工程]