基于情景应对模式的突发地质灾害应急防治探讨  

Study on emergent prevention of sudden geological disaster based on scenario-response model

作　　者：张小趁[1] 陈红旗[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院,北京101601 [2]国土资源部地质灾害应急技术指导中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人民长江》2015年第23期29-33,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项项目"突发地质灾害应急响应支撑关键技术研究"(201211055)

摘　　要：突发地质灾害应急防治宜采用"情景-应对"模式,应急预案制定及应急决策离不开情景分析与推演。情景静态特性表现为地质灾害风险认知,可描述为灾害地质体特征、承灾体特征和地质环境条件等要素;情景动态特性可通过演变后果体现,即关键节点的应对需求变化。通过情景要素的应急响应特性分析,选择响应启动时间、灾害空间范围为一级标准,灾害地质特征和引发因素为二级标准,应对能力满足程度为辅助标准,初步提出了情景分类的框架。并针对单点滑坡、单体危岩(崩塌)、单沟泥石流、跨区地质灾害、区域强降雨、地震次生地质灾害和跨区地质灾害等常见情景,分别给出了应急调查处置方案要点。Geological disaster emergency prevention and control should adopt scenario- response model; furthermore,the emergency planning and its decision making should be based on disaster scenarios analysis and deduction. The static characteristics of scene are manifested as cognition to geological disaster risk,which could be described by some key points such as the features of geological body,disaster bearing body and geological environment. Based on evolution consequence analysis,the dynamic characteristics of scenario are manifested as the results of the evolution,namely the response demand change of the key nodes.Through characteristics analysis of emergency response to the scenario parameters,a preliminary scenario classification framework is put forward,in which the emergency response time and hazard scope are primary criteria,the geological features and trigger factors are secondary criteria,and satisfactory degree of treatment ability are auxiliary criteria. We pointed out the key points of emergency response to several typical scenarios in geological disaster prevention,such as single- point landslide,single dangerous rock collapse,debris flow,inter- region geological disasters,regional heavy rainfall,earthquake- induced secondary geological disasters and so on.

关 键 词：地质灾害 情景 风险评估 应急防治 应急预案 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]