湖南高温日时空分布特征及高温日数气候预测  

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Hot Days in Hunan and Their Climatic Prediction

作　　者：罗伯良[1,2] 李易芝 

机构地区：[1]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,长沙410118 [2]湖南省气象科学研究所,长沙410118

出　　处：《气象科技》2015年第6期1110-1115,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"超级稻超高产栽培气象保障技术研究"(201206045)资助

摘　　要：利用1961—2013年湖南74个气象观测站逐日高温观测资料,建立了较完整的湖南高温日时间序列,分析了湖南高温日时空分布及变化趋势。结果表明,湖南高温日呈增加趋势,每10年增加2天左右,湘北高温日增加趋势显著;高温最长持续日数总体上湘南大部呈弱的减少趋势,每10年减少0.5天左右,湘中及湘北则呈较强的增加趋势,每10年增加1天左右。20世纪90年代以来,湖南高温天气显著增多、增强。利用最优子集回归构建气候预测模型,预测湖南高温平均出现日数,预测效果较好,可在业务中应用。Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 74 stations in Hunan from 1961 to 2013,the complete time series of hot days is established.The temporal and spatial distribution and changing trend of hot days in Hunan during last 53 years are analyzed.The results show that hot days show an increasing trend with an increase rate of 2days per 10 years,which is more obvious in the northern Hunan.The maximum hot duration shows a weak decreasing trend in the southern Hunan with a reducing rate of 0.5days per 10 years,but there is a strong increasing trend in the north and central parts of Hunan with an increase rate of 1day per 10 years.Since the 1990 s,hot days in Hunan have increased and enhanced significantly.A climatic prediction model of hot days is established using the optimal subset regression method.The verification of the 53-year historical records shows that the model can forecast hot days in Hunan satisfactorily,which can be put to operational use.

关 键 词：高温日 时空分布 变化趋势 最优子集回归 湖南 

分 类 号：P425.55[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]