中部经济崛起度动态评估与新常态下促进崛起的战略对策  

Dynamic Assessment on the Level of Economic Rise and Strategic Countermeasures to Promote the Rise under a New Normal in Central China

作　　者：王圣云[1,2] 许双喜[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2016年第1期43-48,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJL062);国家自然科学基金项目(41361027);南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心招标项目(15ZBLPS01)

摘　　要：我国实施中部崛起战略以来,中部经济呈现出良好发展势头。文章构建中部地区经济发展综合测评指标体系,应用Entropy-AHP组合评价模型对我国中部地区经济发展进行综合测评和动态比较分析,并对2015年、2020年中部经济崛起趋势进行组合预测。研究发现:"七五"末至"十二五"初,中部经济综合发展水平整体呈"N"字型折线增长态势,尤其在"十一五"时期,中部地区经济崛起态势更为稳健,经济综合发展水平增长率的省级差距趋向缩小;与广东相比,2015-2020年中部六省经济综合发展水平的增长率普遍偏低,湖北、安徽、河南、湖南的经济综合发展水平增速将快于贵州,山西、江西则可能面临被贵州追赶的潜在威胁。The economy of central China has been showing a sound momentum of development since the implementation of the strategy of the rise of central China. This paper, by constructing an evaluation index system and applying Entropy-AHP combined evaluation model, carries on a comprehensive assessment and dynamic comparative analysis on the economic development in central China, and makes a synthetic prediction for the trend of the economic rise of central China in 2015 and 2020. The study shows that： The overall economic development in central China presented N-shaped broken linear growth trend from the end of 7th five-year period to the beginning of 12th five-year period, the state of economic rise was more robust and the growth rate gap of comprehensive economic development level between the provinces tended to narrow in central China within the 1 lth five-year period. From 2015 to 2020, the growth rate of comprehensive economic development level of six provinces in central China, compared with that of Guangdong province, will be generally lower, the growth rate of comprehensive economic development level of Hubei, Anhui, Henan and Hunan will be faster than that of Guizhou, whereas Shanxi and Ji- angxi may face Guizhou＇ s potential catch-up.

关 键 词：中部经济崛起度 Entropy-AHP模型 动态评估 中部地区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F120.3