基于新疆南部地区实证的棉农生产行为影响因素分析  

ANALYSIS ON THE COUNTERMEASURES OF LIVELIHOOD CHANGES OF COTTON FARMERS IN SOUTHERN XINJIAN

作　　者：闫志明[1] 蒲春玲[1] 胡赛[1] 刘超[1] 黄晓东[1] 黄兴[1] 马旭[1] 刘志有[1] 姜雨辰[2] 马文娟[1] 余慧容[3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,兰州7300702 [3]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2015年第6期139-145,共7页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：荷兰皇家科学院;国家科技部委托的中荷项目"新疆农村生计策略变化--棉花生产环境和减少贫困研究"(07CDP028);国际科技合作项目"新疆南部地区棉农生计变化对策研究"(2009DFA92860)

摘　　要：新疆棉花产业的发展事关新疆经济社会发展,也事关新疆稳定大局。棉花产业已经成为新疆的重要支柱及农民脱贫致富的主要途径。为了更好地服务新疆棉花产业和国家"一带一路"开放战略,文章基于新疆南部地区的实地调研,结合南疆地区特有的社会经济环境和区域民俗文化的条件,借助Logistic回归模型,分别从自然环境条件、家庭因素、市场因素、技术因素、政策因素、风险因素等6个方面对棉农生产行为的影响因素进行分析。研究表明:政策因素、自然因素、风险因素、技术因素对棉农生产行为的影响比较显著,具体的因素主要有棉花补贴、土地肥力、养老保险、医疗保险、农业保险以及技术指导和采用新技术;而劳动力素质、棉农投入的劳动天数、耕地面积、大型农业机械设备、棉花的销售收入、移动电话拥有量、成本支出、化肥使用量、水资源等对棉农生产行为影响较不显著。The development of cotton industry is related to the economic and social development of Xinjiang,and it also concerns the stability of the overall situation of Xinjiang. Cotton industry has become an important pillar of Xinjiang and the main way to get rid of poverty. In order to serve the cotton industry and the country ＂ The Belt and Road Initiative ＂ strategy,The livelihood of cotton farmers concerns the sustainable development of cotton industry in Xinjiang and even China. Based on the methods of questionnaire and field interview,this paper has a systemic study on the livelihood changes of cotton farmers from the aspects of land and water resources,production and operation,technology promotion,fiscal taxation,credit financing,rural social security,and informal institution. The results show that the production behaviors of cotton farmers are influenced significantly by policy factors,natural factors,risk factors,technical factors. specific factors are mainly cotton subsidies,land fertility,endowment insurance,medical insurance,agricultural insurance and technical guidance and using new technologies; and quality of labor,farmers input work days,cultivated area,large agricultural machinery and equipment,cotton sales revenue,mobile phone has the quantity,cost and expenditure,fertilizer amount,and the water resources use of cotton production behavior influence is not significant.

关 键 词：新疆南部 实证分析 生产行为 回归模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]