基于信息熵和模糊综合评判法的震后水库风险评估  

Risk Assessment of A Reservoir After Earthquake Based on Information Entropy and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：陈娜[1] 靳聪聪[2] 曹震[3] 刘帅[4] 

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南郑州450003 [2]大连理工大学建设工程学部水利工程学院,辽宁大连116600 [3]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450011 [4]大连理工大学城市学院,辽宁大连116600

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2015年第6期197-202,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：地震之后应及时对震后水库的风险等级进行合理评估。因此通过建立震后水库的风险等级评判模型,并结合信息熵和模糊数学理论的方法客观的评估震后水库的风险等级。以江油地区震后水库震损统计数据资料为基础求出各评判因素重要度,运用信息熵对评价体系中的各级指标权重进行客观评估,同时综合考虑重要度因素对评价体系的影响,两者有机构成综合权重,通过模糊理论的隶属函数评判体系中单因素,最终采用模糊加权法对震后水库风险等级进行综合评估。经计算表明,该水库为高风险,与实际调查情况相符,从而验证该法的合理性和适用性。The risk level of the reservoirs after earthquake should be evaluated timely. Therefore,the risk assessment model of the reservoirs after earthquake was established and the risk level of a reservoir was assessed with the combination of information entropy and fuzzy mathematics theory. Based on the statistical data of the earthquake damaged reservoirs in Jianyou area,the importance of each assessment factors in the evaluation system were rated,and then evaluated subjectively using information entropy. Meanwhile the influence of factor importance on the evaluation system was considered to form the comprehensive weights of the factors. According to which,the single factors were assessed by applying membership function of the fuzzy theory,and the risk level of the earthquake damaged reservoir was evaluated by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Taking Xujiaqiao reservoir in Jiangyou area as the case study,information entropy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were adopted to evaluate the risk level of the reservoir. The calculated result indicates that this reservoir is at high-risk rank,which is consistent with the actual situation,therefore the practicability and rationality of this risk assessment method are verified.

关 键 词：震后水库 信息熵 风险等级 模糊综合评估法 

分 类 号：TV621[水利工程—水利水电工程]