基于随机前沿引力模型的中澳双边贸易效率及潜力研究  

A Study of Bilateral Trade Potential and Efficiency Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：张燕[1] 高志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第12期20-30,共11页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(13AZD083);国家社科基金重大项目(14ZDA088);新疆自治区基金项目(XJGR12015124);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(XJUFE2015D013)

摘　　要：文章选取2008—2013年的面板数据，运用时变随机前沿引力模型估计中澳双边贸易效率和中对澳出口贸易效率，并测算前沿双边贸易潜力和出口潜力，最后从贸易通道、制度安排与合作领域三个角度提出对策建议。结果表明：人均GDP、自由贸易协定、有无共同语言对贸易流量有正向影响，人口、距离、有无边界、是否为内陆国家对贸易流量产生负向影响；2008～2013年中澳双边贸易效率值在0．8～0．9范围内。而出口效率值均在0．4～0．5之间，双边贸易效率明显高于出口效率，中对澳出口潜力远大于中澳双边贸易潜力。This paper selects the 2008-2013 panel data, and uses the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the efficiency of bilateral trade between China and Australia and the efficiency of China＇s exports to Australia. Then, it measures the potential of frontier bilateral trade and export. Finally, it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions. The results show that the three variables, such as the per capita GDP, the free trade agreement and common language, have a positive effect on trade flow, yet the four variables, including population, distance, boundary, and landlocked countries, produce a negative influence. In 2008-2013, the efficiency of bilateral trade value is within the scope of 0.8 to 0.9, and the value of export efficiency is between 0.4 and 0.5, that is, the bilateral trade efficiency is significantly higher than the export efficiency, namely, the export potential is greater than the bilateral trade.

关 键 词：中澳自由贸易区 贸易效率 贸易潜力 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]