货币信贷结构对宏观经济的机理性影响——兼对“中国货币迷失之谜”的再解释  

The Influence Mechanism of Money and Credit Structure on Macro-economy in China: A New Perspective Re-explaining“Chinese Puzzle of Missing Money”

作　　者：李炳[1] 袁威[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《金融研究》2015年第11期33-46,共14页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD008);国家自然科学基金项目(71473181);国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY187)的资助

摘　　要：本文使用机理变化型变结构协整模型实证分析了1996年1月至2013年5月期间货币信贷结构对中国宏观经济的影响。结果表明:货币信贷结构均在特定时点开始对产出和通货膨胀率产生机理性影响;货币结构与信贷期限结构对实际产出分别具有较弱的正向和负向机理性影响,对通货膨胀率均具有一定程度的正向机理性影响,并且货币信贷结构对通货膨胀率的影响程度明显大于货币信贷总量。在此基础上,通过比较分析货币信贷结构与"货币迷失"之间的关系,发现货币结构与信贷期限结构对"中国货币迷失之谜"均具有很强的解释力。政策建议如下:中国人民银行应同时注重货币信贷总量与结构的调控,监测货币信贷结构的变动应成为提高货币政策有效性与制定货币政策的重要参考。This paper empirically analyzes the influence mechanism of money and credit structure on macro-economy in China during 1996M1 - 2013M5 employing co- integration models with mechanism of changes. The results show： money and credit structures start to influence output and inflation fundamentally at a particular point; the influence mechanism of money and credit structures on real output are weak positive and weak negative respectively,and on inflation are both positive; the influence degree of money and credit structures on inflation is higher than money and credit aggregates. Based on above results,the paper comparatively analyzes the relationship between money structure,credit structure and ＂money lost ＂. We found that money and credit structures have strong explanatory power on ＂Chinese Puzzle of Missing Money＂. Therefore,Chinese central bank should attach more importance on money and credit structures in the process of macro- control,and the volatility of money and credit structures should play an important role in improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and setting down monetary policy.

关 键 词：货币结构 信贷期限结构 机理变化型变结构协整模型 中国货币迷失之谜 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F124