2015年经济景气形势监测与分析  

The Analysis and Forecasting of China' s Economic Situations in 2015

作　　者：陈磊[1] 隋占林 孟勇刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济学院,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2015年第5期567-575,共9页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究;首席专家:陈磊;国家自然科学基金项目(71173029):基于非参数方法和非线性模型的经济景气和通货膨胀监测预警研究;负责人:陈磊;辽宁特聘教授项目:经济波动和通货膨胀的监测预警研究;负责人:陈磊

摘　　要：我国经济景气在2015年第2季度止跌企稳,之后可能在"偏冷"区内下部保持大体平稳的运行态势。在"稳增长"的政策作用下,短期内经济景气再次降温进入"过冷"区间的可能性较小。预测2015年GDP增长6.9%左右,CPI上涨率为1.4%左右,经济增长和物价波动继续呈现新常态下的"微波化"特征。The economic climate has stopped downward trend since 2015 Q2 and is expected to keep roughly stable in the ＂partial cold＂range.Influenced by the policy of keeping the stable growth of the economy, it is unlikely oriented downwards and step into the ＂cold＂ state in a short time.The annual growth rates of GDP and inflation are expected to be around 6.9% and 1.4% respectively in 2015. Economic and inflation cycle would be also featured with wavelet in the ＂new normal＂ stage.

关 键 词：经济周期 景气分析 监测预警 经济预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]