基于云模型的黄土区公路边坡灾害风险评价  

Risk assessment of highway slope disasters in loess areas based on cloud model

作　　者：于伟[1,2] 张浩[1,2] 杨鹏[1,2] 胡玉娇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2015年第4期111-115,129,共6页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：西部交通建设科技项目(2008353361420)

摘　　要：我国黄土区公路边坡灾害多发,对其进行风险评价具有一定的紧迫性。本文在阐述云模型的概念、数字特征和正向正态云发生器原理的基础上,建立了包含指标层、因子层和状态层的风险评价指标体系,并将风险评价结果和各指标的数字特征分为极低风险、低风险、中等风险、高风险和极高风险5级;通过专家调查法和正向正态云发生器建立了风险评价模型,以最大综合确定度对应的风险等级作为风险评价的结果,并以陕西S302的6处边坡潜在灾害点为例对评价模型进行了实例分析。结果表明6处潜在边坡灾害点的风险评价结果与实际调查结果相近,说明本文建立的评价模型是科学、合理的。There is great urgency to carry out risk assessment for slope disasters in loess areas for their high frequency. The concept and digital characteristics of cloud model,and the positive normal cloud generator were analyzed before the assessment index system was built,which including index layer,factor layer and statement layer. The risk assessment results and the numerical characteristics of each index are divided into very low risk,low risk,moderate risk,high risk and very high risk. The risk assessment model is built through expert investigation method and the positive normal cloud generator. The results show that the risk assessment results of the six potential slope disaster points are close to the actual survey results,which shows that the assessment model is scientific and reasonable.

关 键 词：道路工程 黄土区 边坡灾害 风险评价 云模型 

分 类 号：U416.02[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]