Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk  

作　　者：侯威 颜鹏程 李淑萍 涂刚 胡经国 

机构地区：[1]National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China [2]College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China [3]Jilin Meteorological Science Institute,Changchun 130062,China [4]Department of Physics Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225002,China

出　　处：《Chinese Physics B》2016年第1期831-837,共7页中国物理B（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955901);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Gra Nos.41305056,41175084,and 41375069);the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China(Grant N GYHY201506001)

摘　　要：By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long- range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long- range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.

关 键 词：multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis return intervals drought risk 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]