扩大内需政策下流通产业增长的影响因素——包含制度因素的主成分实证分析  

The Factors Influencing the Growth of Circulation Industry under the Policy of Expanding Domestic Demand——the Principal Component Analysis with Policy Factors

作　　者：王晓东[1] 周旭东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院,北京市100872

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2016年第1期17-24,共8页China Business and Market

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(研究品牌计划)资助项目"国内贸易活动的基础理论综合与研究方法创新"(项目编号:13XNI009)

摘　　要：流通产业的影响因素较多,且作用机理各有不同,以往的研究多局限于理论推导或者单因素实证分析。本文通过回顾改革开放以来我国流通产业增长的理论研究成果,梳理流通产业增长的多种影响因素,根据作用机理将其归类为社会环境因素、资源要素因素、市场需求因素和产业内因素。为进一步明确各类因素的影响程度,利用主成分分析法,实证分析全国28个省市区数据,对已收集的16个变量进行测算和排序。结果表明,需求因素仍然是影响我国流通产业增长的最重要因素,扩大内需对于现阶段经济增长具有十分迫切的意义,但是制度因素的作用相对不显著,决定了扩大内需的政策选择应该有所侧重。而基于流通产业内部的变革,在短期内对流通产业增长的促进作用不太显著。the influencing factors of the circulation industry are relatively numerous,and the mechanism of action is different. The previous studies are mostly confined to the theoretical derivation or single factor. The authors review the theory of the growth of China＇s circulation industry since reform and opening up,and combine the various factors that affect the growth of circulation industry. To further clarify the impact of various factors,the authors use principal component analysis with data of the28 provinces and cities that have been collected and sorted. The result shows that the demand factor is still the most important factor to affect the growth of China＇s circulation industry and expanding domestic demand is very urgent for the current economic growth;but the relative factors of the system is not significant,and the policy choice should be focused on expanding domestic demand. And based on the change of the circulation industry,the promotion of industrial reform in the short term has no very significant effect on the promotion of industrial growth.

关 键 词：流通产业 影响因素 扩大内需 主成分分析 制度 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]