大规模风电并网的双供应源电力供应链牛鞭效应分析  

Bullwhip Effect of Double Sources Electricity Supply Chain for Large-scale Wind Power Integration on Power System

作　　者：侯琳娜[1] 孙静春[1] 王海燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]北京信息科技大学机电工程学院,北京100192

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2015年第6期86-94,共9页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:产能影响下的光伏供应链风险池效应研究(71372164);国家自然科学基金项目:考虑新能源发电预测误差及其联合分布特性的电力系统随机优化理论研究(51277141)

摘　　要：中国当前的电力供应链除具有部分垄断特征外,还由于大规模风电并网使得电力供给也出现随机性,它与随机需求一起影响了供应链信息的准确传递,在电力供应链产生了牛鞭效应,但对这类问题的研究极少。本文在分析中国电力供应链特点的基础上,构建了由煤炭供应企业、发电厂(火力发电和风力发电)和用户组成的多级电力供应链模型,揭示了牛鞭效应在单/双供应源两种供应链类型下的变化。研究结果表明,大规模风电并网形成的双供应源电力供应链牛鞭效应较大且波动剧烈,尤其当下游用户需求较平稳时,供应链会出现牛鞭效应与反牛鞭效应共存现象,而预测技术的选择、风电场合理规划等有助于抑制牛鞭效应,保证电力安全并减小资源浪费。In addition to characteristics of partial monopoly for current electricity supply chain in China, its structure changes from single source to double sources due to large-scale wind power integration on power system, resulting in random supply and random demand. These changes affect the accurate transmission of electricity demand information and induce bullwhip effect, but these problems have rarely studied. Based on the characteristics of China＇ s electricity supply chain, we build a multi-level supply chain model including coal companies, power plants （thermal plant and wind power plant） and users, discuss changes of bullwhip effect in single and double sources electricity supply chain. The results show that bullwhip effect in double sources electricity supply chain is larger and more unstable, especially when the electricity need is relatively steady, there will be coexistence of bullwhip effect and anti-bullwhip effect. Through discussion of the bullwhip effect, we can deeply understand the changes and impacts of China＇ s current electricity supply chain and realize that reasonable forecasting model and rational planning of wind farms will be helpful to restrain bullwhip effect.

关 键 词：牛鞭效应 反牛鞭效应 随机需求 随机供应 电力供应链 

分 类 号：F253.2[经济管理—国民经济]